This quote is from Jonathan Pain’s paper, delivered at a conference I attended in Sydney in February this year.
The conference was a full day affair, with 13 very intelligent people talking about the end of quantitative easing and what effect that might have on investment markets. However, Jonathan Pain’s statement set me thinking about the all too human biases that affect human decision making and often cause markets to move in ways that at times seem irrational.
The fact that we are talking about irrational thinking deserves some explanation. In the years following World War II, there was a fierce debate within economics about how they should treat human decision making. The debate was largely won by the neo-classicals, who assumed that we are all human computers who take in a vast amount of data about prices, products, services and whatever else we are buying, then do a superfast calculation before deciding to act in the way that will maximize our own financial position. No room for doubts or emotions to cloud judgement. These assumptions permeated much of finance and economists built more and more complex models, all highly mathematical, and all ignoring the more human elements.
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