John Cameron's personal blog

Serious discussion about your financial position now - and in the future.

Beware The Noise Of The Media – Mass, Social And Other

Two major global events this year have defied the expectations of the media, be it mass media, social media, or any other media.

I refer to Brexit, and Donald Trump’s win in the US elections. If you followed the build up to both events, you would have thought that there was no way either of these events could turn out the way they did – let alone both.  

Furthermore, the chatter beforehand held that either event would lead to the collapse of the stockmarket, and the economy going down the toilet. 

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What Will 2017 Bring? Are We At A Tipping Point?

(Will Governments start spending more to boost growth?)

Over the last few months there has been a notable shift in the narrative around economic policy.

Since the GFC, the main tool of policymakers has been monetary policy (think record low interest rates). 

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Amended Super Amendments Pass

Miracle of Miracles, Wonder of Wonders -  the much debated, and heavily criticised (by some) changes to the superannuation system have passed Parliament and are set to become law. The original changes (amendments) were announced in the May budget. As a result of heavy criticism, the original amendments have been amended sufficiently to pass through the Parliament.

Passage through Parliament at this time indicates a degree of cooperation between the various political parties. It was starting to look like they may not pass until the March sitting of Parliament, and this would have put their implementation date under pressure, as the changes are due to start on 1st July, 2017.

Now the work begins of looking closely at the details. On first glance, it looks like the effects of the changes will vary greatly between different individuals. Some people will see no change at all. For others, the changes will be substantial. More to come.

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Black Swan Event Financial Planning - Proud to be a sponsor of the Mosman Park Bowling Club

 

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Was Trump’s Win A Black Swan Event?

“Black Swans and Stunned Mullets - Two Species Often Found Together”

Black Swan Events occur when something that was totally unforeseen, or at least very unlikely, happens.

On that basis, if you had listened to the experts, the win by Trump, certainly qualifies. The airwaves were full of forecasts of a Clinton win. The smug certainty of all the pollsters and forecasters before the election is now matched only by their “stunned mullet” demeanour since the election. Talk about egg on face, or any of dozens of other metaphors, but the message is clear – the experts often get it wrong – way wrong.

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