John Cameron's personal blog

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Who Spotted The Recent Black Swan Event?

Black Swan Events are things that happen, but nobody sees them coming. Mostly the term relates to events in the financial world, where markets change suddenly, without apparent warning. Examples include the GFC, and the 1987 sharemarket crash.

Black Swan events can also occur in our personal lives, such as when a close family member is struck down by a sudden illness, out of the blue and with no warning. A current example is diver Taneka Kovchenko, who had to withdraw from the Commonwealth Games because of a medical diagnosis that “one dive gone wrong could turn her into a paraplegic”.

Then there is the example of Tim Paine. Who, 12 months ago would have tipped him to be Australia’s captain? He had a record as an outstanding wicketkeeper, but his career was hampered by serious injury (a broken finger that took several surgeries to heal), and at the start of the season he was playing for Tasmania as a batsman, and seemed to be on the way out of first class cricket.

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